3.3 Why We Fear the Wrong Things (Sharks vs. Bathtubs) - The Availability Heuristic
Sharks are terrifying, right? Guess what’s deadlier - your bathtub. Welcome to the availability heuristic, where your brain plays tricks on you!
Ever noticed how after you watch a scary shark movie or hear about a shark attack on the news, you suddenly think shark attacks are common? You're at the beach like, "There must be a shark out there..." Meanwhile, you're way more likely to get hurt driving to the beach, but that doesn't pop into your head as much. This quirk of the brain is thanks to the availability heuristic. In short, we judge how likely something is by how easily we can recall an example of it. If something is easy to think of (like that shark), our brain says, "Yep, that must happen a lot!"
What is the Availability Heuristic?
The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut. Instead of carefully researching how common something is, your brain just goes, "Can I think of an example quickly? If yes, then it must be common or likely. If no, probably rare." It's our mind's way of making a snap judgment. The trouble is, things that are dramatic, scary, or recently heard about are really easy to remember, but that doesn't mean they're common.
In simpler terms: we think whatever is most vivid in our memory is what's true in the world. It's not always accurate, but it's a default setting our brain uses.
Real-Life Availability Heuristic Examples
Fear After News Example: You see a news story about a plane crash. For the next few weeks, you might feel super nervous about flying, thinking "Planes are so dangerous!" But statistically, car rides are riskier. The plane crash is stuck in your head (available memory), so you overestimate its likelihood. Or closer to home: after hearing about a rare incident at school (like someone getting hurt in a freak accident in the chem lab), you might think "chem lab is dangerous," even though it's usually very safe. The vivid story skews your perception.
Studying and Grades Example: You pull an all-nighter before a test and get a good grade. That one success is easy to recall (especially because you probably bragged about it or felt relieved). Next time, you might think, "Eh, I don't need to study early, cramming works!" You're using the most available example (last test) to judge a study strategy. But maybe you got lucky, and several other times you crammed and didn't do so well - those memories might not come to mind as quickly because we tend to remember our wins and forget some failures. The availability heuristic tricks you into thinking cramming always works because one time it did.
Social Perceptions Example: Imagine you hear that one kid in another school got very sick from a new cafeteria lunch option. That story spreads (because it's shocking), and now you assume "That food is dangerous!" Even if hundreds of students ate it and were fine, the one dramatic story is what sticks in everyone's mind. Similarly, if one of your friends had a bad experience with a certain teacher or on a club trip, you might think it'll happen to you too, just because their story is on repeat in your head.
The availability heuristic is basically your brain being a bit lazy, grabbing the easiest story from the shelf and saying "This is how it is." It's not always wrong, but it can definitely mislead you.
Challenge: Check the Facts, Not Just Your Memory
Let's train to beat this bias. Your challenge:
Next time you're really worried about something, ask: "Am I worried because it's actually likely, or just because I heard about it recently or it's on my mind?" Identify if you might be using an easy memory to judge something.
Do a quick reality check. Maybe even look up a stat or ask around. (e.g., "Are lots of people actually getting sick from that lunch, or was it one kid?")
Write down one belief you had that was influenced by a vivid story or memory, and then find out if reality matches it. (For example, "I was scared of dogs because I remembered one biting someone, but actually dog bites are rare and most dogs are friendly if you're kind to them.")